New comet – C/2023 A3 – could be bright in 2024

Astronomers have found a new comet! They’ve labeled it C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS). And it’s something to look forward to, as it makes its closest approach to the sun (its perihelion) more than a year from now. So, the bad news is it’s not until 2024. But the good news is that early estimates of the comet’s brightness suggest it’ll be bright.

Perihelion for this comet will come on September 28, 2024. At that point, some estimates are suggesting it might be around magnitude 0.7. That brightness rivals some of the brightest stars in the sky (though, for comets, the brightness is diffuse, not in a single point).

And of course, as with all comets, be aware that they are finicky balls of ice and dust, often not living up to expectations.

Last chance to get a moon phase calendar! Only a few left.

Discovery and naming

The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in South Africa discovered Comet C/2023 A3 on February 22, 2023. Additionally, observers at Purple Mountain (Zijin Shin or Tsuchinshan) Observatory in China found the comet independently on images from January 9, 2023. Therefore, the comet also has the nickname Tsuchinshan-ATLAS.

At discovery, the comet was still 7.3 astronomical units (AU) from the sun, and shining at a dim magnitude 18.

Where’s the comet now?

Preliminary analysis of its trajectory suggests comet “A3” completes an orbit around the sun every 80,660 years. As of March 2023, the celestial visitor is currently between the orbits of Saturn and Jupiter. Although some specific facts and dates might be updated, currently it appears that closest approach to Earth should occur on October 13, 2024 at 05:38 UTC.

An amazing detail of comet “A3” is its blazing speed: 180,610 miles per hour (290,664 km/h) or 80.74 km per second, relative to Earth.

When does the fun begin?

Amateur astrophotographers in the Northern Hemisphere may start getting good images of the approaching comet by early June 2024, as the visitor glides by the constellation of Virgo. The comet gets lost in the glare of the sun by August 2024. Then it passes at perihelion – or closest to the sun – on September 28, 2024. Observers with an unobstructed view of the eastern horizon might get a view of the comet during perihelium, especially if the visitor develops an impressive tail.

The development of a nice tail is a possibility, because the comet will be a lot closer to the sun than the planet Venus. In fact, it will be so close to our star that during perihelion, comet A3 will be skimming the orbit of planet Mercury. However, this closeness to our star comes with a known risk for comets; the possibility of disintegration. That’s the reason why there is a current debate on whether this comet will or will not survive its approach to the sun.

If comet A3 survives perihelion, it’ll be too close to the eastern horizon during its closest approach to Earth. The good news is that the high speed of the comet will get it higher in the sky during the following nights after passing by our planet, thus making it easier to spot in the western sky.

Closest approach to Earth

Its closest approach to Earth comes on October 13, 2024. At that point, it could be bright enough to reach magnitude -0.2. As it passes between Earth and the sun, forward scattering could make the comet appear even brighter. The reflection of sunlight off the dust and ice could enhance its light in our direction, making it brighten considerably, up to magnitude -5. That is, if it survives.

We know very little about the *properties* of comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS), so the assessment in https://t.co/NZF4hEF5hj is important: the "conditions are extremely favorable" but it could also "have a sub-kilometer nucleus that disintegrates leaving us nothing to see" …

— Daniel Fischer @cosmos4u@scicomm.xyz (@cosmos4u) March 1, 2023

The path of Comet C/2023 A3

After the comet gets closest to the sun, it will swing around near Earth. But as it does so, it passes almost directly between Earth and the sun, making it challenging to view. In early October, the comet will be in the dawn sky in Leo and near the constellations Hydra and Crater.

Then in late October, as it appears on the other side of the sun, it will move into the evening sky, passing through Serpens Caput and into Ophiuchus.

Finder charts for C/2023 A3

Bottom line: A newly discovered comet, C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS), could be quite bright in October 2024.